I have recently heard several agents say that home prices are going down. Considering the increase in listing inventory, the number of price reductions we are seeing and the change in the pace of the market, it is understandable why many would come to that conclusion.
But what does the data actually tell us?
I recently reviewed the MLS® Home Price Index for Greater Moncton, comparing the benchmark prices from August 2026 with those from three months ago and 12 months ago. What I discovered was interesting: prices have softened considerably since the spring, but they have not generally declined compared with one year ago.
Both statements can be true.
Compared With One Year Ago:
The benchmark price for Greater Moncton was $378,700 in August 2026, compared with $362,800 in August 2025. That represents an increase of $15,900, or 4.4%.
The three principal communities show remarkably similar annual increases:
• Moncton increased from $363,500 to $384,000, an increase of 5.6%.
• Dieppe increased from $420,700 to $443,300, an increase of 5.4%.
• Riverview increased from $357,800 to $377,200, an increase of 5.4%.
The neighborhood-level results tell a similar story. Of the 48 areas and combined benchmarks included in the report, 38 had higher benchmark prices than they did 12 months ago.
Some areas recorded particularly strong increases. Riverview Center was up 10%, Villa Dieppe was up almost 13%, Savanah Heights was up nearly 8%, Dieppe Chartersville was up 7.7% and Moncton North was up 6.5%.
There were exceptions. Dieppe East, Moncton West, Shediac, Shediac River, Salisbury and a few other areas were below their benchmark from last year. However, most of those declines were relatively modest.
Based on the 12-month comparison, the evidence does not support the conclusion that home prices are broadly declining throughout Greater Moncton.
Compared With the Spring Market:
The short-term comparison presents a very different picture.
The Greater Moncton benchmark was $404,200 three months ago. By August, it had declined to $378,700, a decrease of $25,500, or approximately 6.3%.
Of the 48 benchmarks shown in the report, 47 were lower than they had been three months earlier. In some areas, the decrease from the spring benchmark was significant.
This helps explain what agents are experiencing. Sellers are making price adjustments; properties are remaining on the market longer and buyers have considerably more choice than they did earlier in the year.
Agents who say prices have been coming down are accurately describing the recent direction of the market. However, that does not necessarily mean homes are worth less than they were one year ago.
A more accurate statement would be:
Home prices have softened from their spring 2026 peak, but benchmark values generally remain higher than they were 12 months ago.
HPI Versus Average Selling Price:
To properly understand these numbers, we must also distinguish between the average selling price and the MLS® Home Price Index.
The average selling price is calculated by dividing the total dollar value of all properties sold by the number of sales. It can be heavily influenced by the types of properties that happen to sell during a particular month.
For example, if a larger number of luxury homes sell, the average price can rise even if the value of a typical home has not changed. If more lower-priced properties sell, the average can decline even though underlying residential values remain stable.
The MLS® Home Price Index takes a different approach. It measures changes in the benchmark price of a typical property while accounting for its characteristics and location. This makes it a more useful tool for following property values over time.
Neither measure is wrong. They simply answer different questions.
The average price tells us the average amount paid for the properties that sold during a particular period. The HPI gives us a better indication of whether the value of a typical property is increasing or decreasing.
This is why we should be careful about using one month’s average selling price to declare that the market, or the value of someone’s home, has gone up or down.
What Is Changing?
What is clearly changing is the amount of competition among sellers.
New listings increased by 15% in August compared with last year. Active MLS® inventory reached 2,587 properties, its highest level in several years. Expired listings were also up 34% year to date.
More inventory gives buyers more selection and more time to compare properties. It also reduces the urgency that previously allowed some sellers to test the market with aggressive prices.
In this environment, an overpriced property may sit while a properly priced competing property sells. The resulting price reductions can create the impression that the value of every home is falling. In many cases, however, the reduction may simply represent the correction of an unrealistic original asking price.
The Conversation We Should Be Having:
Our responsibility as REALTORS® is not to repeat what we hear. It is to understand the data, place it in context and help our clients make informed decisions.
We should not tell sellers that prices are still rising everywhere. The short-term numbers do not support that statement. We should also not tell them that values are broadly declining when most benchmark prices remain higher than they were one year ago.
Instead, we should explain that the market has become more balanced and more price-sensitive. Sellers face greater competition, buyers have more negotiating power and accurate pricing has become ever more important.
The question is not simply whether prices are going up or down. The better questions are: Compared with when? In which area? For what type of property? And according to which measurement?
The market is changing. Prices have softened since the spring, and rising inventory may continue to place pressure on sellers. But based on the MLS® Home Price Index, the typical Greater Moncton property remains worth more today than it was 12 months ago.
That is the complete story, and it is the story our clients need us to understand.
